AUDUSD and RBA tomorrow

The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week is not expected to produce a surprise or change in policy stance, and is therefore having a limited impact on the Australian Dollar.

Cash Rate and RBA Statement

The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.25% at the June meeting, as widely predicted, and said the economy was having a very difficult time and experiencing the biggest economic contraction since the 1930s. Policy makers note that there is a possibility that the depth of decline will be less than previously thought, because the pace of new cases has declined and some restrictions have eased earlier than previously thought. The committee said that they are ready to increase government purchases again and will do whatever is necessary to ensure the bond market continues to function. Policymakers add that unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy easing is helping the economy and is likely to be needed for some time. The Board stressed that it would not increase the cash rate target until there was progress on employment and inflation within the 2-3% target.

It is possible that the RBA will want to change its relaxed attitude to the relatively strong AUD, given the recent RBA statement regarding the obstacles to economic recovery which may be enough to trigger some AUD losses. However, the last few meetings did not show any significant price reaction, and global risk sentiment is still the main determinant of AUD movement next week. Unless there is a big change in sentiment, we might still see  trade in the AUDUSD range at prices between 0.6850-0.700 next week.

Technical View

AUDUSD traded on consolidation continued from last week and formed an ascending triangle pattern, and the outlook looks unchanged. Initial bias is still neutral this week, although there is a possibility of a correction from the high price of 0.7063. On the negative side, a break of 0.6776 will turn the bias to the downside to 0.6469, however, a continued break above 0.7063 will continue the overall rise from the March low of 0.5507.

But 0.7000 is still a psychological reference price for this pair. Technical indications i the 4-hour chart, still support a narrow rally, with prices above the 120-period EMA and 200-period EMA, RSI above the level 50 and MACD also still in buying position. In the big picture the upward momentum seems to have lost momentum, which is currently below the recent resistance, although the RSI and MACD are still in the zone of positive sentiment. A rebound from the 0.5507 medium-term bottom could correct the entire long-term downward trend of 0.8135 high prices in 2018. Continuous trading below 0.6776 could make the downward trend continue to 0.6469, 0.6285 even to 0.6101.

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Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia

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