I’ve been reading texts and messages at an increasing rate that Bitcoin is currently forming the Top/ Peak/ All Time High of the current Cycle (Bull Market). Even though this noise is not alarming as historically an increase in sell positions always goes wrong, I can’t claim that I am not concerned for those who are going to miss out (again) on the rally that is ahead.
Why I don’t believe that the current levels are not the top? For the simplest reasons of all. Bitcoin has never historically granted investors the time to sell that long on a market top. This is a luxury that the market just doesn’t give. There has never been a month long opportunity (we’ve already completed 27 days since the $61800 High) to short at the top before. All Bull Cycle endings have come with an aggressive few days selling, not consolidation.
The main chart above is pretty explanatory on the 1W time-frame but for the community’s own convenience, I have broken down each significant BTC top on the 1D time-frame below:
In more detail:
* The current March/ April 2021 sequence is 27 days past the High and -6% below it. The total drop within that time-frame has been -18%. Also it is above the Lower Highs trend-line. Far from what Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Tops have scored in the past and see below why and derive your own conclusions.
* During the June/ July 2019 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -29%. The total drop within that time-frame was -35%. In contrast with those below, this sequence was not an All Time but a temporary High within the greater Bull Cycle we are currently in. But for comparison purposes I’ve included it in my research.
* During the December 2017/ January 2018 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -28%. The total drop within that time-frame was -45%.
* During the December 2013 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -40%. The total drop within that time-frame was 64%.
* During the April 2013 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -60%. The total drop within that time-frame was 81%.
* During the June 2011 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -56%. The total drop within that time-frame was 68%.
We can of course argue that in recent years BTCUSD has become more institutionalized and such big dips become more and more unlikely to come. But still being at just -6% from the High after almost a month of trading, is far from what has ever been considered to be a Cycle Top.
But what do you think? Is this a market top or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Credit: TrasingShot, tradingview.com