Wednesday, January 20

Commodity outlook: Gold, silver up; here’s how others may trade on Monday – Economic Times

Bullion and agricultural commodities were traded higher in Monday’s morning trade, while base metal and energy pack were mixed following global cues.MCX Gold and MCX Silver were up 0.35 per cent and 1.27 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, crude oil was down 0.32 per cent in the international market.

NCDEX Agridex, an agricultural futures index that tracks the performance of the ten liquid commodities, was up 0.83 per cent or 9 point at 1,069 led by gains in guar gum, guar seed and turmeric.

Here is how SMC Global expects commodities to fare today:

Gold and silver: Bullion counter may extend the rally where gold may test Rs 54,200 and taking support near Rs 52,900 while silver may test Rs 66,200 and taking support near Rs 62,400. Gold prices made a fresh peak early Monday at $1,980 an ounce and seemed on track to take out $2,000 soon. The gold prices posted their best month in more than four years, as a weaker dollar and worries over the global economic fallout from the mounting Covid-19 cases drove investors towards the safe-haven metal.

Base metals: Copper can move towards Rs 495 and face resistance near Rs 505. Base metals were trading mostly lower on Monday morningas investor confidence was hit by a resurgence of coronavirus cases and more evidence of the economic impact of the pandemic. Zinc may move towards Rs 186, taking support near Rs 182. Lead can move towards Rs 151 while taking support near Rs 147. China’s imports of refined zinc have started picking up over the last two months, with June’s tally of 64,700 tonnes the highest monthly total since August last year. Nickel trades with a bullish bias where it may take support near Rs 1,015 and resistance near Rs 1,065. Aluminum may move towards Rs 142 while taking support near Rs 138.30.

Energy: Crude oil may trade with sideways to bearish bias where it may take support near Rs 2,920 and resistance is seen near Rs 3,080. Oil prices fell on Monday on concerns about oversupply as OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, are due to pull back from production cuts in August while an increase in Covid-19 cases worldwide raised fears of slower pick-up in fuel demand. Natural gas may trade in range where resistance is seen near Rs 145 taking support near Rs 133.

Spices: Turmeric futures (Aug) are likely to trade sideways to up in the range of Rs 5,700-5,800 taking positive cues from the spot markets. Jeera futures (Aug) are expected to witness a sideways movement in the range of Rs 14,000-14,200. In the present scenario, the commodity is taking negative cues from the rise in warehouse stock and weak demand from bulk buyers. Gujarat’s Unjha mandi is likely to reopen this week. Dhaniya futures (Aug) are expected to hold on the support near Rs 6,250, while the upside may remain capped near Rs 6,400 levels. Cardamom futures (Aug) are likely to consolidate in the range of Rs 1,500-1,550.

Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Aug) may continue to consolidate in the range of Rs 3,770-3,820. Mustard futures are on a bull-run and making a new three year high every week due to short supply and demand for mustard oil shot up due to sudden increase in household consumption. With no stock left with farmers and new season crop arrivals 6-8 months away, mustard prices are likely to remain firm in days to come. Going ahead, every dip can be taken as an opportunity to accumulate this oilseed, eyeing targets of Rs 5,100-5,150. The edible oils are likely to continue their bull run taking positive cues from the international market.

Other commodities: Cotton futures (Aug) are expected to consolidate and trade on a firm note in the range of Rs 16,130-16,500. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) said the prices of the fibre crop have bottomed out and expects the demand from the spinning mills to pick up gradually on easing of lockdown. Chana futures (Aug) would possibly hover sideways in the range of Rs 4,080-4,140. The current levels of chana are attractive for millers traders due to cheaper pulses and reducing arrivals. Even consumption is likely to increase in coming days as festive period begins next month till Diwali. Meanwhile, prices in spot markets traded much below minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 4,875. Mentha oil futures (Aug) are likely to trade with a downside bias in the range of Rs 935-945. The overall sentiment remains bearish due to concern over demand and increased arrivals in key trading centres.

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