Saturday, October 31

Daily Gold News: Precious Metals Fluctuate Ahead of Fed Talk

The gold futures contract gained 0.66% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate following the recent advance. Recently gold was retracing a rally from around $1,800 to August 7 record high of $2,089.20 in reaction to U.S. dollar advance, among other factors. Then gold has bounced from the support level marked by mid-August local low of around $1,875, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is unchanged this morning, as it is still trading within a short-term consolidation. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 2.21% on Monday and today it is 0.3% lower. Platinum gained 1.49% and today it is 1.6% lower. Palladium gained 2.30% on Monday and today it is unchanged. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI release has been slightly better than expected at 57.8. Today we will get some more Fed/ECB talk. There will be the Fed Chair Powell speech at 10:40 a.m.

Let’s focus on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release. Where will the price of gold go following last week’s news? We’ve compiled the data since September of 2018, a 25-month-long period of time that contains of twenty five NFP releases. The first chart shows price paths 5 days before and 10 days after the NFP release. The last three cases are marked with dashed lines. Gold gained around 1% in July and September, but in August it lost almost 4%.

The following chart shows the average gold price path before and after the NFP releases for the past 25 months. The market was usually fluctuating for a week before advancing and closing 0.46% higher on the 10th day after the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Tuesday, October 6

  • 4:35 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Trade Balance
  • 9:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings
  • 10:40 a.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech
  • 11:45 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Harker Speech
  • 6:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
  • All Day, Eurozone – ECOFIN Meetings
  • All Day, China – Bank Holiday

Wednesday, October 7

  • 8:10 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Meeting Minutes, FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 3:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 9:45 p.m. China – Caixin Services PMI

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.


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