What are Carry Trades in Forex? - Securities

FX Update – Risk On Ahead of Earnings Season

AUDUSD & XAUUSD, H1

Risk-on positioning has seen the Dollar and Yen soften in currency markets. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex fell below Friday’s low at 96.44 on route to 96.32. Last Thursday’s one-month low is at 96.24. EURUSD lifted to a four-day peak at 1.1336. Cable also lifted above its Friday peak in posting a high at 1.2666. USDJPY posted a sub-20-pip range in the upper 106.00s while the Japanese currency weakened against most other currencies. AUDUSD printed a four-day high at 0.6983. USDCAD ebbed to a 1.3556 low, extending further from Friday’s two-week high at 1.3633.

Front-month USOil prices have been holding a narrow range near $40.00. In equity markets, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index printed a five-month peak while the USA500 has risen by more than 0.5%. Early European trades have seen the GER30 fall from opening highs at 12,875 to test Friday’s close under 12,700, the UK100 is down too at 6,140 from opening highs at 6,188. Gold continues to hold its “low yield” bid over $1800, and trades at $1808 (R1), below Friday’s highs of $1810 (upper Bollinger band) and last week’s peak at $1817 (R2).

Markets are betting that the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings reports will beat lowered expectations, and that global economies will avoid blanket lockdowns despite localised spikes in new coronavirus infections. And despite media reports of “surging” new Covid-19 cases, and the social-psychological and political pressure surrounding the issue of the pandemic, a cool look at the data shows that the coronavirus is nowhere near as devastating as feared earlier in the year. Based on the data, even if every person in the world were to contract the virus, only one in 105 would die, and of these the median age would be over 80, while the vast majority would recover without complications.

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