Wednesday, July 8

Tag: Forex Analysis

UK Week Ahead
Forex News

UK Week Ahead

May and June data out of the UK, as elsewhere, have showed a strong rebound from April, when the coronavirus lockdown measures were in full force. However, the path ahead looks to be a rocky one. New lockdown measures being re-introduced in city of Leicester, due to a spike in coronavirus cases there, is an ominous sign of the challenges being faced as the UK economy reopens. Concerns also remain about the risk of the UK leaving its transitory membership of the EU’s single market at year end and shifting to trade on less-favourable WTO terms. Trade negotiations remain in deadlock, with the latest round of talks having ended last Thursday, a day earlier than planned. The EU’s chief negotiator Barnier said, “after four days of discussions, serious divergences remain.” There is also a ...
XAUUSD – today’s gold price
Commodities, Forex News

XAUUSD – today’s gold price

XAUUSD, H4 Yesterday (June 2) the gold price fluctuated during the US economic data announcement. The non-farm payroll employment in the United States came out better than expected at 4,800K from the forecast of 3,000K, as well as the unemployment rate which came in at 11.1% from the forecast number 12.3%. However, the number of unemployed was higher than predicted and the hourly income came out lower than expected. Overall, the economic numbers still confirm that the economic recovery continues. The stock market has rebounded strongly this week and the 10-year US Treasury yield had its best week in four, closing at 0.669. Although the overall economic recovery may have reduced the safe haven demand for Gold however, the background remains one of a risk of the coronavirus outbreak extendi...
US equity futures rally after NFP
Forex News

US equity futures rally after NFP

US nonfarm payrolls increased 4,800k in June, better than expected, after the upwardly revised 2,699k (was 2,509k) bounce in May following the -20,787k (was -20,687k) collapse in April. The unemployment rate slide to 11.1% versus 13.3% (was 13.3%) previously, and April’s 14.7%. The rate was at a 50-year low of 3.5% in February. The labor force rose another 1,705k after the prior 1,746k gain, with household employment up 4,940k versus 3,839k. The labor force participation rate rose to 61.5% versus 60.8%. Average hourly earnings declined another -1.2% versus -1.0% previously, unwinding some of the 4.7% pop in April. Average weekly hours fell to 34.5 in June from 34.7 in May. Private payrolls climbed 4,767k (versus ADP’s 2,369k) following the 3,232k (was 3,094k) increase in May The goods prod...
FX Update & NFP Preview – July 2
Forex News

FX Update & NFP Preview – July 2

USDJPY, H1 The Dollar and Yen have traded moderately softer against most other currencies. USDJPY has settled in the low-to-mid 107.00s after dropping back from the three-week high that was seen early yesterday. Other Yen crosses, including the risk-sensitive AUDJPY cross, have seen a similar price action, with the Yen losing safe haven demand as global stock markets stage a tentative rebound on hopes about a vaccine for the coronavirus. Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech, developing two of the 150-plus candidate vaccines, report good results in early-stage human trials. Markets are also looking for a strong rebound in US employment in today’s June payrolls report, despite a sub-forecast rise in yesterday’s June ADP private jobs report. Consensus for the June nonfarm payroll gain is at 3.090 m...
US Data – ADP, PMIs & Vaccine News
Forex News

US Data – ADP, PMIs & Vaccine News

EURUSD, H1 US ADP reported private payrolls rose 2.369 million in June. Also, May was revised sharply higher, by 5.825 million to a 3.065 million increase (was -2.760 million). April’s -19.409 million was a record plunge. Jobs in the goods production sector increased 457,000, with construction jobs up 394,000. Service sector employment increased 1.912 million, with gains of 961,000 in leisure/hospitality, 283,000 in education/health, and 151,000 in professional/business services. A robust private payrolls. The ADP climb beats the modest improvement in the continuing and initial claims data for the period, but undershoots the bigger sales, sentiment, and output gains in other measures, and is in line with the payroll gain expected for tomorrow’s jobs report. ADP gains were fairly evenly dis...
Global Market Analysis July 1, 2020
Forex News

Global Market Analysis July 1, 2020

Recent market conditions: In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index rose to a maximum of 97.77 and then came under pressure to close at 97.33. For non-US currencies, the EURUSD closed slightly lower than 1.1233; the GBPUSD recorded a rebound to yesterday’s high since closing down on the 4th, closing at 1.2399; the USDJPY surged up to 107.91; NZDUSD and AUDUSD closed moderately up about 40 points at 0.6452 and 0.6902; USDCAD fell back with resistance and recorded a decline of more than 0.6% at 1.3574; USDCHF basically gave up yesterday’s gains and closed at 0.9471. The precious metal market demand is heating up again. Spot gold rose above the 4-day high and recorded a maximum of $1785.72. As of the close, it was reported at $1780.30 per ounce. Spot silver recorded an increase of m...
USDIndex – Is the trend still down?
Forex News

USDIndex – Is the trend still down?

USDIndex – The Dollar has strengthened after home sales came out better than expected, at 44.3% from the 19.7% predicted and higher than -21.8% seen last month, boosting also  stock markets. The US returned to the positive with S&P +1.47%, NASDAQ +1.2% and Dow Jones +2.32%. It looks like the USDIndex’s resumption attempt in the second half of June was not as effective as expected, with safe haven demand falling after the May lockdown. As a result of the latter, the US Dollar seems to be based on more internal economic factors. Therefore, this week we must pay special attention to US economic data. Today, the Chicago PMI index numbers are due alongside consumer confidence and Fed President Powell’s testimony, and tomorrow the ADP employment numbers and the PMI-ISM index w...
Forex News

Update on NZDUSD and NZDCAD

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the global economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic is expected to last and lead to lower economic growth, employment opportunities, and inflation at least until 2021. The RBNZ and financial institution system are well-positioned to deal with economic storms and support the inevitable pace of recovery, Governor Orr believes, because that the banking system was required to hold more capital, liquidity, and lower risk mortgage loans during the ‘good times’ of recent years. Banks will play an important role and become part of economic recovery, said Orr. NZDUSD traded with a narrow range towards the end of the month, since a few days ago. The range of transaction ranges is only about +/- 50 pips. Prices tend to consolidate and contract in a ...
GBP saw 3-month low VS EUR
Forex News

GBP saw 3-month low VS EUR

Cable has found a footing in the mid 1.2300s after last week tumbling from the mid 1.2500s, which culminated late Friday with a 1-month low at 1.2312. EURGBP, meanwhile, has printed a fresh 3-month high, at 0.9104, making this the fourth consecutive week of higher weekly highs. Euro positive factors A combo of the upcoming EU recovery fund, which is being greeted as a Euro positive by most analysts, and the market perception that the BoE is unwinding monetary stimulus prematurely, has been underpinning EURGBP. Additionally, the comments from a top German judge suggesting that it is now up to the ECB to decide whether to participate in the ECB’s bond purchase program were taken as positive, especially after the ECB last week released some documentation justifying its extension of the QE pr...
XAUUSD – Gold Price Trend This Week
Commodities, Forex News

XAUUSD – Gold Price Trend This Week

XAUUSD, Daily On Friday, the US stock markets opened in negative territory and deteriorated into the market close at an average of more than 2.5%. This was followed by the 10-year US Treasury yields that fell below 0.65%, resulting in the gold price bouncing back up to stand above $1770. USOil closed almost $1 a barrel lower at $38.16. The number of people infected with Covid-19 around the world has reached 10 million, and the number of deaths is now at more than 500,000 , while in the United States the number of people infected reached its highest record ever last week at over 2.5 million, with deaths at 125,000. However, in the midst of the high number of people still infected last weekend, the Chinese National Biotec Group (CNBG) announced the results of a second vaccine test for humans...