Friday, January 22

Tag: S&P Emini

Emini has 5 consecutive bull bars in January rally so bear bar likely today or tomorrow
Strategy

Emini has 5 consecutive bull bars in January rally so bear bar likely today or tomorrow

Yesterday closed with 5 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Since that is extreme, it increases the chance of a bear day today or tomorrow. But unless there is a strong reversal down, the bulls will continue to buy pullbacks on the daily chart. Yesterday’s high was below Friday’s high, and therefore yesterday was a pullback. Because it was a bull inside day, it is a High 1 bull flag buy signal bar for today. However, the body was small, and a doji bar is a weak buy signal. It is important to note that yesterday was the 3rd day above the bull channel on the daily chart. Most breakouts above bull channels fail within about 5 days. There is therefore an increased chance of a reversal down for a couple weeks beginning this week. Overnight Emini Globex trading The Emini is up 5 points in ...
Emini’s January buy climax is accelerating up, but increased chance of reversal down this week
Strategy

Emini’s January buy climax is accelerating up, but increased chance of reversal down this week

The Emini is breaking above the top of the December bull channel. There is a 75% chance that the breakout will reverse down within about 5 bars. But with Friday and last week closing on the highs, the buy climax might continue higher early this week as buy climax is accelerating. Remember, a buy climax can go much further than what might seem reasonable. Traders will continue to buy until there is a top or a big reversal down.However, I have been saying that there is an increased chance of a reversal down after January 6. With the Emini trying to break above its bull channel, that further increases the chance of a reversal down starting this week. If the bears can create two or three consecutive bear days, or one huge bear day that closes on its low, traders will expect a couple legs dow...
Emini strong January rally breakout above bull channel should fail
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Emini strong January rally breakout above bull channel should fail

  The SP500 Emini futures bull trend is strong and traders expect higher prices. But it is breaking above bull channels on the daily and monthly charts, and any breakout above bull channel typically fails by about 5 bars. The bond futures market is breaking below a 9-month triangle and a bull trend line. If there is follow-through selling next week, traders will expect a measured move down. The EURUSD Forex market is stalling at the top of a 6-year trading range. If the rally does not accelerate soon, traders will look for a 3-week pullback. 30-year Treasury Bond futures Bond futures on weekly chart broke below a 9-month trading rangeBond futures on the weekly candlestick chart finally broke below their 9-month trading range this week. While I have been saying that the bond market will b...
Emini outside up bar for 1st week of 2021
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Emini outside up bar for 1st week of 2021

Pre-Open market analysisThe Emini formed a 3rd consecutive bull trend day. While it is overbought, traders will keep buying until there is a clear top, or a strong reversal down. There is a measured move target above at 3807.50, based on a measuring gap on the 60 minute chart. That is a magnet above and today should get there.Today is Friday and the end of a reasonably strong 1st week in 2021. Weekly support and resistance can be important, especially in the final hour. This week is an Emini outside up week. Therefore this week’s open and last week’s high are important. The bulls want today to close above both, and they want the week to close on the high. That would increase the chance of higher prices next week.For the bears, last year’s high and close are magnets below, as is the 3...
Emini climactic test of last year’s high occurred yesterday
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Emini climactic test of last year’s high occurred yesterday

Pre-Open market analysisAfter Monday triggered the yearly buy signal by going above last year’s high (an outside up candlestick), it immediately reversed down. This often happens with higher time frame signals. When a buy signal bar is big, many bulls do not want to risk to below the bottom of the buy signal bar. Therefore, there is a relative lack of buyers above the buy signal bar, and the chart often quickly reverses down after triggering the buy signal. However, the bulls who did not buy often buy a sharp selloff, like they did yesterday.Half of the time, the Emini rallies again and triggers the signal a 2nd time, which it did yesterday. Yesterday also triggered the OO (outside-outside) buy signal on the daily chart. But an OO late in a bull trend frequently becomes the Final Bull ...
Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis
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Market Overview: Weekend Market Analysis

The SP500 Emini futures chart closed 2020 at a new all-time high. That increases the chance of a gap up next week on the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly charts. However, if there is a strong rally in early January, it will probably soon lead to a profit-taking pullback down to 3500.Bond futures on the weekly chart are at the apex of a 10-month triangle. There should be a breakout in January. There is a 50% chance that it will be up and a 50% chance it will be down.The EURUSD Forex has rallied strongly since March, but there is a nested wedge top. That often leads to profit taking. This week’s bear outside down bar might be the start of a pullback to the November low at around 1.16.30-year Treasury Bond futuresBond futures on weekly chart are at the apex of a triangle, with...
Emini daily and weekly High 1 bull flags at end of 2021
Strategy

Emini daily and weekly High 1 bull flags at end of 2021

Pre-Open market analysisLast Thursday (pre-Christmas holiday) was a bull inside bar on the daily chart, after a big bull day a week ago. Today is a High 1 buy signal bar in a Small Pullback Bull Trend.On the weekly chart, last week is also a High 1 bull flag buy signal bar in a strong bull trend. This week should trigger both buy signals.The bulls want the year to close on its high when it ends on Thursday. They then want January 4, the 1st trading day of 2021, to gap above this year’s high. There would then be a gap up to a new all-time high on the yearly chart, which might not have ever happened before in the stock market.The bears want a selloff to 3500 to begin this week, but they might have to wait until after January 6. At the moment, the Emini is rallying strongly enough to ...
The Emini might finish 2020 at new all-time high
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The Emini might finish 2020 at new all-time high

The SP500 Emini futures are at a measured move target, and there is a nested wedge top on the weekly chart. Also, the 5-week rally on the daily chart has not been very strong. Traders should expect a pullback to below 3500 to begin by early January after a possible 2020 new all-time high.Bond futures on the weekly chart are at the apex of a 10-month triangle, and just above a 2-year bull trend line. They should break up or down by the end of January.The EURUSD Forex market on the weekly chart has rallied strongly from the March low. However, the rally is in a nested wedge bull channel. That typically results in a bear breakout, and a couple legs down. While the bull trend is still intact, traders should be ready for a possible reversal down in January.30-year Treasury Bond futures ...